BLAZERS: Oden surgery - the sky is not falling

Greg Oden will have surgery (exploratory arthroscopic) on his right knee this week. Apparently Oden complained of unusual knee pain last week and an MRI showed some cartilage irregularities (inconclusive). The local and national media have made many predictions about this. Plenty of disappointment and “the sky is falling” sentiments as well as lots of “wait and see”. Many take the Blazers’ silence on the issue as a bad sign. Bottom line is that we don’t know until the surgeon(s) get in there. There are a few points that I've concluded which I haven’t seen in any media coverage:

1) TIMING: Oden was participating in the voluntary team pick-up games and unofficial players-only practices. It’s unprecedented that the entire team is together and scrimmaging against each other so long before training camp. If Oden were not participating in this, we might not have learned about this until 3 weeks from now. As it stands, we get a 3 or 4 week jump on the problem. Surgeons say, if the exploratory procedure turns up nothing serious, it could be a 3-5 week recovery scenario. That puts us just past training camp and into the preseason. Bummer, no doubt, but descent timing. Without the team scrimmages, we may be way behind in getting this thing taken care of.

2) REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS: While ticket sales jumped significantly and TV scheduling have been significantly boosted by Oden’s coming to Portland (Note: we bought our tix before the draft lottery), this year is not expected to be a stellar W’s year. I think it’s stretching the limits of reason to believe we’d get to 40 W’s this year. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love that and hope for it, but too much development needs to take place before we’ll be taking that next step. If a season-threatening surgery were going to take place on GO, this would be an OK time for it to happen (never a good time, mind you).

3) LAMARCUS’ YEAR: I believe this year and next year, the star of this team will be LaMarcus. Brandon is the leader, LaMarcus is the star. As much as we’d like to have a dominant big man immediately, Oden has shown that he is a project this year. I’d love to be wrong, but reality is that he’s a project this year. 3 years down the line, when his rookie contract is up and it’s time for him to make a decision about his future, that’s when the rubber meets the road. When excellence and dominance is the outcome, I can be patient. Can you?

4) PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS: Oden has been so hyped up in the media, etc, I have a strong suspicion this is taking a major toll on him. Let us not forget how young this kid is. This is such a major step in his life – entering the NBA – a stalled start could be catastrophic to his confidence if not handled correctly and his perspective is not right. I recall the first phone call broadcast after his selection in the draft this year. Oden said he can’t wait to get out to Portland the next day and join the family. Mike Barrett and Kevin Pritchard were on the line and assured him he was already a part of the Portland family. Then he comes to town with a packed city square chanting his name. Warm and fuzzy, right? Well, now people are calling him “Mr. Bowie”. Nice, people. Real nice. Lay off the guy. The kid had a broken wrist last season and a tonsillectomy in July, for goodness sake. He hasn’t been able to show the world what he’s got. Now, his entrance onto the big stage and his knee gives him trouble. I got a feeling he’s the most torn up about this of anyone involved. He’s family, and I got his back.

Wait and see. The sky is not falling.